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Thursday, 19 February 2015

Goals Difference vs Score Adjusted Shots on Target Ratio

I have taken @objectivefooty 's tracking of Score Adjusted Shots on Target Ratio in the Premier League to date (25gms) and compared to Goal Difference. http://objective-football.blogspot.com.es/2014/10/201415-score-adjusted-numbers.html

Would you rather be Man United or Liverpool going into the last 13 matches?

R-squared of .887

Goals Against vs. Shots on Target Against (25 games)

Here is a viz created using Tableau:

Man United and West Ham are crazy outliers with very high save%'s keeping their seasons from being much worse.

On the other side, we have Everton and Newcastle who are serious outliers with poor save %'s. For Everton, they could very easily be up around 6th position with a league average save %.

Expect these 4 teams to all  regress towards the league average save % of approximately 68%.