EPL 11v11 Advanced On-Pitch Player Stats


2014-15

2015-16 Updated April 7, 2016

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Friday, 29 May 2015

End of Season Look at Schedule Adjusted Total Shots

This is a method designed by Micah McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) for weighting schedule strength in the National Hockey League (NHL) using Total Shots (Corsi).  The method is described in full detail in the following link.  https://hockeygraphsdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/scheduleadjust.pdf

I was interested in how it would look using raw Total Shots For/Against from the Premier League.

End of season notes:

With the Premiership playing a balanced schedule (unlike North American sports leagues), I didn't know if Schedule Adjusted TSR would be that much different from raw TSR. Turns out, that in the end, Schedule Adjusting did little to alter raw TSR.

It is a weird year for in-season repeatability of raw TSR. R-squared of '1st half vs 2nd half' is way down to ~0.40 this year. A vast decline of the previous 5 season avg (~0.75).  TSR still maintained a high correlation to Goal Difference (r squared of ~.71).

Schedule Adjusted TSR did poorer in predicting itself than raw TSR. R-squared of ~0.37. While, versus Goal Difference, it slightly edges raw TSR, with a r squared of ~.72.

Given these results, I will probably not track Sched Adj Total Shots next season. Given the small value it adds to explaining goal difference I do not think it is worth the time I spend inputing the data.

I am glad I did it but I will appreciate using the extra 1 1/2 hrs per week it took to track and organize, on other things :)

Cheers,
Clarke

Here are the Schedule Adjusted TSR results (compiled using www.whoscored.com):

Season Totals (Matches 1-38)
Team Total Shots
For
Total Shots
Against
TSR% Schedule Adjusted
Shots For
Schedule Adjusted
Shots Against
Sched Adj
TSR%
Dif
Arsenal 608 406 60.0% 600 410 59.4% -0.6%
Aston Villa 415 481 46.3% 410 475 46.3% -0.0%
Burnley 430 591 42.1% 439 590 42.7% 0.5%
Chelsea 564 415 57.6% 552 421 56.7% -0.9%
Crystal Palace 440 526 45.5% 446 525 45.9% 0.4%
Everton 483 503 49.0% 482 499 49.1% 0.2%
Hull 434 503 46.3% 436 496 46.8% 0.4%
Leicester 457 557 45.1% 459 554 45.3% 0.2%
Liverpool 584 419 58.2% 581 430 57.5% -0.8%
Man City 670 384 63.6% 658 392 62.7% -0.9%
Man United 513 386 57.1% 506 387 56.6% -0.4%
Newcastle 466 442 51.3% 470 448 51.2% -0.1%
QPR 534 621 46.2% 545 633 46.2% 0.0%
Southampton 510 384 57.0% 505 386 56.7% -0.3%
Stoke 503 455 52.5% 501 454 52.4% -0.1%
Sunderland 409 625 39.6% 420 612 40.7% 1.1%
Swansea 427 551 43.7% 431 542 44.3% 0.7%
Tottenham 526 489 51.8% 530 495 51.7% -0.1%
West Brom 413 546 43.1% 414 534 43.7% 0.6%
West Ham 487 589 45.3% 490 589 45.4% 0.1%

2nd half of Season (Matches 20-38)
Team Total Shots
For
Total Shots
Against
TSR% Schedule Adjusted
Shots For
Schedule Adjusted
Shots Against
Sched Adj
TSR%
Dif
Arsenal 289 214 57.5% 282 218 56.4% -1.0%
Aston Villa 226 208 52.1% 224 206 52.1% 0.0%
Burnley 215 287 42.8% 222 286 43.7% 0.9%
Chelsea 255 222 53.5% 253 227 52.7% -0.8%
Crystal Palace 236 270 46.6% 240 268 47.2% 0.6%
Everton 236 256 48.0% 234 253 48.1% 0.1%
Hull 240 217 52.5% 241 216 52.7% 0.2%
Leicester 246 256 49.0% 246 255 49.1% 0.1%
Liverpool 294 199 59.6% 285 203 58.4% -1.2%
Man City 350 182 65.8% 335 184 64.6% -1.2%
Man United 262 177 59.7% 255 181 58.5% -1.2%
Newcastle 230 209 52.4% 232 213 52.2% -0.2%
QPR 264 328 44.6% 271 336 44.6% 0.0%
Southampton 256 211 54.8% 257 214 54.6% -0.2%
Stoke 249 211 54.1% 252 216 53.9% -0.3%
Sunderland 195 347 36.0% 202 335 37.6% 1.6%
Swansea 218 281 43.7% 222 275 44.6% 0.9%
Tottenham 274 251 52.2% 277 255 52.0% -0.2%
West Brom 180 308 36.9% 182 296 38.1% 1.2%
West Ham 228 309 42.5% 232 307 43.0% 0.5%

1st Half of Season (Matches 1-19)
Team Total Shots
For
Total Shots
Against
TSR% Schedule Adjusted
Shots For
Schedule Adjusted
Shot Against
Sched Adj
TSR%
Dif
Arsenal 319 192 62.4% 317 191 62.4% -0.0%
Aston Villa 189 273 40.9% 186 269 40.9% -0.0%
Burnley 215 304 41.4% 217 305 41.6% 0.2%
Chelsea 309 193 61.6% 299 196 60.4% -1.2%
Crystal Palace 204 256 44.3% 204 257 44.3% -0.1%
Everton 247 247 50.0% 250 246 50.4% 0.4%
Hull 189 286 39.8% 188 280 40.2% 0.4%
Leicester 211 301 41.2% 215 300 41.7% 0.5%
Liverpool 293 215 57.7% 301 221 57.6% -0.1%
Man City 320 205 61.0% 320 209 60.6% -0.4%
Man United 246 209 54.1% 246 206 54.4% 0.4%
Newcastle 236 233 50.3% 235 233 50.2% -0.1%
QPR 269 293 47.9% 273 298 47.7% -0.1%
Southampton 253 173 59.4% 248 173 58.9% -0.5%
Stoke 254 244 51.0% 250 242 50.8% -0.2%
Sunderland 214 277 43.6% 218 276 44.2% 0.6%
Swansea 209 269 43.7% 213 265 44.6% 0.8%
Tottenham 252 238 51.4% 250 242 50.8% -0.6%
West Brom 233 238 49.5% 232 237 49.5% -0.0%
West Ham 259 275 48.5% 258 274 48.5% 0.0%

End of Season 11v11 Shot Metric Table

For your viewing pleasure:
Team Mins TSR% SoTR Goal Ratio Sh% SV% PDO
Arsenal 3353 60.4 63.6 66.7 30.6 73.2 103.9
Aston Villa 3248 46.6 43.2 36.9 25.8 66.5 92.3
Burnley 3274 42.8 41.3 34.2 22.3 69.8 92.1
Chelsea 3160 56.7 62.5 72.3 35.2 77.6 112.8
Crystal Palace 3346 46.7 49.6 49.5 33.3 66.4 99.8
Everton 3320 48.2 54.9 49.0 29.9 62.0 92.0
Hull 3160 47.2 45.7 40.8 25.4 69.0 94.4
Leicester 3327 43.9 43.1 46.0 34.3 69.5 103.8
Liverpool 3286 58.9 57.8 51.1 25.4 66.7 92.1
Man City 3218 62.2 62.0 67.0 36.4 70.6 107.0
Man United 3222 58.0 55.7 63.0 34.9 74.2 109.2
Newcastle 3340 52.3 48.0 39.6 28.4 60.1 88.5
QPR 3293 45.9 40.6 36.1 27.1 67.3 94.4
Southampton 3285 56.0 60.3 63.9 32.3 72.2 104.5
Stoke 3281 52.1 47.6 50.6 36.8 67.4 104.2
Sunderland 3265 39.7 40.2 36.3 23.2 72.6 95.8
Swansea 3273 44.3 44.4 47.8 29.5 74.3 103.8
Tottenham 3253 51.3 50.0 51.4 32.5 69.3 101.8
West Brom 3136 45.1 43.6 42.7 27.8 71.2 98.9
West Ham 3201 43.0 43.5 46.6 30.4 73.1 103.5